Sex offender risk assessment

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Thursday, August 22, 2019
From risk estimations based on clinical observation and environmental changes in the s, anthropological and longitudinal studies of juvenile offenders in the s, the examination of psychoneurotic patients in the s to the application of actuarial prediction to clinical assessment in the s, researchers and practitioners have sought to identify valid and reliable measures of recidivism risk in sexual offenders. Advances in what we know about sexual offending behavior and how to reliably assess sexual recidivism risk led to the development of actuarial risk assessment instruments ARAIs , probably one of the most important advances in the field of risk assessment. These instruments have permeated the entire criminal justice system with specific reference being made to relevant legislative acts in the USA, Canada, the UK, and other European countries on the use of ARAIs. References Allan, A.
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REDUCING THE RISK ASSESSMENT CLASSIFICATION FOR NEW YORK REGISTERED SEX OFFENDERS

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Risk Assessment | ATSA

The items on the scale are the following: Lived with both biological parents until age 16 Elementary school maladjustment Never been married at time of index offense Criminal history score for nonviolent offenses Criminal history score for violent offenses Number of convictions for previous sexual offenses History of sexual offenses only against girls below 14 years of age negatively scored Failure on prior conditional release Age at index offense negatively scored Diagnosis of any personality disorder Diagnosis of schizophrenia negatively scored Phallometric test results indicating deviant sexual interests Psychopathy Checklist Revised score Each item is scored and then assigned a weight based on the relationship of that item to violent recidivism in the construction sample; the weights are then summed to obtain a total score. The score yields the percentile rank of the offender as compared with the construction sample and the estimated probability of violent recidivism based on a 7- and a year period of opportunity to re-offend. The items can be scored from complete institutional files or from files and interviews but note that external corroboration of offender self-report is important.
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Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG)

References Introduction Although the desire to predict the risk of future violence posed by individuals is likely centuries old, risk assessment efforts until recently have been relatively unsuccessful in terms of their predictive accuracy. Notwithstanding pseudoscientific methods such as phrenology which claimed to gauge behavior propensities based on measurements of the skull , risk assessment for many decades has primarily involved individual mental health professionals applying their accumulated experience and clinical acumen to produce a clinical judgment of the degree of risk posed by a particular individual. An Assessment of Clinical Techniques in to usher in a truly scientific approach to violence risk assessment. In the three decades since the publication of Monahan's book, the relative accuracy of violence risk assessments has increased substantially. The ability to accurately assess the likelihood of future violent acts — and future criminal behavior more generally — is important to clinicians, policymakers and the public alike.
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References Introduction Although the desire to predict the risk of future violence posed by individuals is likely centuries old, risk assessment efforts until recently have been relatively unsuccessful in terms of their predictive accuracy. Notwithstanding pseudoscientific methods such as phrenology which claimed to gauge behavior propensities based on measurements of the skull , risk assessment for many decades has primarily involved individual mental health professionals applying their accumulated experience and clinical acumen to produce a clinical judgment of the degree of risk posed by a particular individual. An Assessment of Clinical Techniques in to usher in a truly scientific approach to violence risk assessment. In the three decades since the publication of Monahan's book, the relative accuracy of violence risk assessments has increased substantially. The ability to accurately assess the likelihood of future violent acts — and future criminal behavior more generally — is important to clinicians, policymakers and the public alike.
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